Nicosia, Cyprus. Cyprus is at the centre of a widening regional conflict, but the chances of escalation into a world war remain minimal, international relations analyst Charalambos Chrysostomou told philenews.
Criteria for a world war
Chrysostomou said the conflict, under way since 28 February, has turned the Middle East into a theatre of war but remains below the threshold for a global conflict. He said a world war would require fighting across more than two continents and involvement by most of the world’s major powers.
He said only the United States qualifies as a major power among the countries currently involved, while Israel and Iran are regional powers.
Russia and China not involved
Chrysostomou said for the conflict to become global, at least one of Russia or China would need to actively join the fighting, and a new front would need to open on another continent, which he described as remote.
He said Russia is tied down in Ukraine, and that China’s actions and statements show no intention of active military involvement on Iran’s side, despite Beijing condemning US and Israeli operations against Tehran.
European presence in Cyprus
He said the preventive military presence of European powers in Cyprus does not amount to participation in the war. He added that for the conflict to acquire a global character, those countries would need to become part of the fighting, which he said is not currently the case.
Opposing camps and proxies
Chrysostomou said world wars, as seen in the First and Second, have featured two clearly defined opposing camps. He said Iran is currently fighting alone, alongside its proxies in the region.
Global economic impact
Chrysostomou said that while the prospect of a world war remains remote, the economic dimension of the conflict is already being felt globally. He said oil installations are being targeted and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for several days, with consequences extending beyond the region.
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