Brussels, Belgium. The European Central Bank’s latest wage tracker projected easing negotiated wage growth across the euro area in 2026, while data from Cyprus pointed to continued salary increases alongside persistent income disparities.
ECB projections for negotiated wage growth
According to the ECB’s headline wage tracker, negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments is expected to reach 3.2 per cent in 2025 before slowing to 2.3 per cent in 2026.
The ECB said the calculations are based on coverage representing 51.3 per cent of employees in participating countries for 2025 and 41.9 per cent for 2026. Compared with the March 2026 data release, the ECB said the 2026 figures remained unrevised.
Alternative measures and one-off payments
The ECB’s tracker using unsmoothed one-off payments indicated negotiated wage growth of 3.0 per cent in 2025 and 2.6 per cent in 2026.
The tracker excluding one-off payments showed a decline in negotiated wage growth from 3.8 per cent in 2025 to 2.6 per cent in 2026.
The central bank said the headline wage tracker is more suitable for understanding monthly and quarterly wage dynamics because it smooths bonuses, inflation compensation payments and other temporary elements over time, while the unsmoothed indicator provides a clearer picture of annual wage developments.
Quarterly breakdown for 2026
For 2026, the headline tracker averages 1.8 per cent in the first quarter, 2.1 per cent in the second quarter and 2.6 per cent in both the third and fourth quarters.
What do you think the projected slowdown in negotiated wage growth could mean for workers in 2026?