Tehran, Iran. Two weeks after the start of a joint US-Israeli operation against Iran, Iranian-American historian and journalist Arash Azizi said the country’s leadership has been heavily hit but not broken and that the war has not produced political overthrow.
Larijani’s death and regime continuity
Azizi spoke hours after Israel announced it had killed Ali Larijani, whom many regarded as a “shadow leader” of the regime in Tehran even before the assassination of Ali Khamenei. Azizi said Larijani’s death was significant but not decisive for the regime’s survival, arguing the system does not depend on one man and that other figures can step in to keep it operating.
Larijani’s role and political profile
Azizi described Larijani as an experienced negotiator with decades of dealings with the United States and Europe, well versed in international affairs, educated and politically complex. Azizi said this did not make him a moderate, calling him a hard figure within the regime and linking him to the violent suppression of the January protests.
Succession after Khamenei and internal cohesion
Azizi said the elimination of senior figures, including Ali Khamenei, did not lead to chaos, adding that institutions continued to function and the succession process was activated quickly. He said Mojtaba Khamenei emerged as the new centre of power and that the shift did not trigger internal division, with the regime’s main factions aligning behind him.
From regime change expectations to weakening strategy
Azizi said early expectations of “regime change” were receding and being replaced by a logic of weakening rather than overthrow. He said such a strategy could allow a wounded but functioning system to regroup, reorganise and survive, potentially with new faces emerging.
Potential rise of more Western-facing figures
Azizi said he did not rule out the emergence of more “centrist” or “Western-leaning” figures from within the system and identified former president Hassan Rouhani as the leading figure of that tendency. He said Rouhani, in his seventies but in good condition, could return to a leadership position if he secured sufficient backing within the security apparatus, and that collective institutions might conclude they need someone like Rouhani because of his ability to speak to and negotiate with the West.
How do you assess the likelihood of Iran’s leadership shifting toward more Western-facing figures under current conditions?