Rome, Italy. Italy’s lower house of parliament on Thursday approved a contested government plan to overhaul the electoral law, which opponents said could help Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni retain power after the next election, due in 2027.
Proposed electoral system
The proposal, backed by Meloni’s right-wing coalition of Brothers of Italy, the League and Forza Italia, would establish a fully proportional system while guaranteeing a majority to any bloc receiving more than 42% of the vote.
A bloc exceeding that threshold would receive a bonus of 70 seats in the 400-member lower house and 35 seats in the 200-member Senate. Its overall representation would be capped at 220 lower-house seats and 113 Senate seats to avoid excessively large majorities.
Coalition tensions
The reform debate exposed divisions within the governing alliance. On Tuesday, lawmakers rejected a government proposal to allow voters to express preference votes for candidates on party lists, partly because of defections within the coalition.
The bill still requires approval by the Senate, which the government hopes to obtain after the summer recess.
Changes to current rules
Under the current system, most lawmakers are elected through proportional representation, while about one-third are elected in first-past-the-post constituencies, which analysts say tend to favour the opposition.
The proposed reform would eliminate first-past-the-post seats, including in southern Italy, where the centre-left alliance led by the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement is considered particularly competitive.
Political outlook
Government supporters said the reform would ensure that a stable majority emerges from elections. Meloni is due to become Italy’s longest-serving postwar prime minister in early September, following an unusually long period of political stability.
A new far-right movement has drawn support from the ruling coalition in recent months, raising questions about its prospects in the next election. Futuro Nazionale, led by former army general Roberto Vannacci, is polling at just over 6% and has overtaken the League in some surveys.
It remains unclear whether Vannacci would ultimately align with Meloni.