Athens, Greece. Jefferies said the resilience of the Greek economy remains a key pillar of the positive investment narrative for Greek banks, maintaining buy recommendations for Alpha Bank, Eurobank, National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank. The investment bank said Greek lenders continue to operate in one of the most attractive macroeconomic environments in Europe.
Valuation and macroeconomic backdrop
Jefferies said Greek banks continue to trade at a discount of around 15 per cent compared with the wider European banking sector, a factor it said supports the sector’s valuation case.
In a report whose findings were shared by Greek business outlet Newmoney, Jefferies focused on recent economic data following Greece’s first quarter 2026 GDP figures and said the country continues to outperform the European Union in terms of growth.
Growth performance
Greece recorded real GDP growth of 2.1 per cent in 2025, compared with 1.4 per cent for the European Union, marking the fifth consecutive year in which the country outperformed the bloc.
The trend continued in 2026, with Greece posting year-on-year growth of 2.0 per cent in the first quarter, compared with 0.7 per cent across the European Union, according to the report.
Jefferies said investment and private consumption remain the main drivers of expansion, while the Bank of Greece forecasts GDP growth of around 2 per cent for 2027 to 2028, even after the completion of NextGenerationEU funding in 2026.
Policy focus and fiscal position
The report also referred to comments by the governor of the Bank of Greece, who said the country has shifted its focus from recovery to what he called “strategic acceleration”, aiming to achieve long-term convergence with the European Union by closing the investment gap and avoiding past macroeconomic imbalances.
On the fiscal side, Jefferies highlighted Greece’s improved position, noting that it was one of only five European countries to record a budget surplus in 2025.
The surplus reached 1.7 per cent of GDP, compared with an EU average deficit of 3.1 per cent, while the primary surplus stood at 4.9 per cent of GDP. For 2026, Jefferies expects Greece to maintain a strong fiscal position, forecasting a primary surplus of 3.2 per cent of GDP.