Brussels, Belgium. Jet fuel prices in Europe have exceeded $200 per barrel and airlines have already removed 9.3 million seats from summer schedules, with fares rising as disruption at the Strait of Hormuz affects supply linked to the conflict with Iran.
Strait of Hormuz disruption hits jet fuel supply
The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint for global oil exports. The conflict has disrupted oil exports from the Persian Gulf, affecting the production of kerosene and jet fuel.
Middle Eastern refineries, which supply more than 10% of global jet fuel and kerosene output, are struggling to ship cargo to buyers outside the region.
European jet fuel reaches historic high
Jet fuel prices have risen faster than crude oil since the conflict began. In Europe, prices have exceeded $200 per barrel, a historic high that has increased pressure on airlines.
Asia most exposed as refinery output declines
Asia is described as the region most exposed because it traditionally absorbs the largest share of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Data from OilX, compiled by Energy Aspects, showed Asian refinery production of jet fuel and kerosene fell to 2.9 million barrels per day in April, down more than 500,000 barrels per day from February.
EU import reliance increases vulnerability
Around 40% of the EU’s jet fuel is imported, and almost half of that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Several European refineries have closed in recent years after failing to compete with larger Asian operations, increasing Europe’s exposure to supply disruptions.
Refineries run at maximum as stock risks mount
Shell said European refineries are running at maximum capacity for jet fuel production, while Europe is increasing imports from North America and Africa.
The International Energy Agency warned that if Europe cannot replace more than half of its Middle Eastern supply losses, jet fuel stocks could reach critical levels as early as June. It said that in such a scenario, fuel shortages at airports could trigger flight cancellations and a sharp fall in demand.
United States capacity limits and regional dependence
Donald Trump said the United States has “abundant” jet fuel stocks and rejected restricting exports to protect the domestic market. However, American refineries are operating at record levels with limited room to increase output, and most production is consumed domestically.
The U.S. west coast remains 15% to 20% import-dependent, with supplies mainly drawn from South Korea.
Airlines face rising costs and capacity cuts
Fuel is the second-largest expense for airlines after labour and can account for up to 30% of operating costs. Most European carriers hedged fuel costs early, locking in prices for the coming months, while many U.S. airlines abandoned hedging after losses during the 2008 crisis.
American Airlines said it expects more than $4 billion in additional costs this year. IAG, owner of British Airways, forecast a fuel cost increase of about €2 billion in 2026.
Low-cost carriers are under particular pressure due to business models built on low costs and cheap fares. Spirit Aviation Holdings collapsed in early May, with higher fuel prices complicating its attempt to exit bankruptcy.
How will rising jet fuel prices affect your summer travel plans?