Islamabad, Pakistan. A warning by Dmitry Medvedev has intensified concerns among Gulf states that reopening the Strait of Hormuz could become the main outcome of Iran-US talks, falling short of broader de-escalation they see as essential.
Focus of upcoming talks
Officials and analysts expect the next round of negotiations, due in Islamabad, to focus less on Iran’s missile programme or regional proxies and more on uranium enrichment limits and how to manage Tehran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, described as the world’s most critical oil shipping route.
Gulf concerns over decision-making and leverage
Gulf officials warn that managing rather than removing Iran’s leverage risks entrenching Tehran’s influence over Middle East energy flows, prioritising global economic stability while leaving the most exposed countries outside formal decision-making.
Sources said diplomacy between Iran and the US is now centred less on rolling back missile capabilities and more on enrichment levels, alongside a tacit acceptance of Iran’s ability to influence access through the Strait, which carries around a fifth of global oil supplies.
Enrichment dispute and shifting priorities
Negotiations remain stalled over enrichment, with Iran rejecting both zero enrichment and demands to transfer its stockpiles abroad. Gulf officials said the shift in priorities itself is a cause for concern.
“At the end of the day, Hormuz will be the red line,” one Gulf source close to government circles said. “It wasn’t an issue before. It is now. The goal posts have moved.”
There was no immediate response from Gulf Arab governments to requests for comment.
Shipping threats and Medvedev remarks
Iran’s threats to shipping during the conflict have broken long-standing taboos around the Strait, making disruption a realistic negotiating tool for the first time.
Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, underlined this in a post on X on April 8, suggesting the Strait functions as a form of strategic leverage.
“It’s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out,” he said. “But one thing is certain, Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It is called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible.”
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