Nicosia, Cyprus. The war in the Middle East is reshaping alliances and strategic choices across the region, with consequences extending beyond the immediate battlefronts. In an interview with Phileleftheros, Tel Aviv University’s Amos Nadan said the developments have direct implications for Cyprus’ security and geopolitical positioning.
Iran’s position and regional alliances
Nadan, Director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, said Iran appears to be emerging from the war considerably weakened. He said alliances Tehran previously relied on, including the Houthis, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and its influence in Syria and Iraq, are no longer as strong as they were.
He said Iran’s proxy allies are increasingly pursuing independent strategies that do not align with Tehran’s ambitions, adding that while these actors were never fully controlled by Iran, they now see it as weaker and more vulnerable.
Nadan also said Tehran’s actions have driven greater unity among Arab states, particularly in the Gulf. He said countries such as Oman and Qatar, previously seen as relatively friendly or neutral towards Iran, now appear more distanced from it or opposed, contributing to the formation of an informal anti-Iran bloc.
He said the bloc includes states that maintain good relations with both Israel and the United States, creating potential opportunities for closer alignment with Israel and, depending on developments, for more countries to join the Abraham Accords.
U.S. role and Israel’s next challenges
Nadan said the United States is reaffirming its decisive role as an arbiter of regional developments. He said Israel is seeking to capitalise on the new landscape, while anticipating that the period after military operations against Iran, and possibly Lebanon, will bring renewed pressure related to the Palestinian question and Gaza.
He said Israel would face expectations to make concessions as a condition for advancing deeper cooperation with Arab states.
Cyprus, the Eastern Mediterranean, and security considerations
Nadan addressed concerns about whether the conflict could spread to the Eastern Mediterranean after attacks targeting Cyprus and Israel, as well as Turkey. He said he does not view the Eastern Mediterranean as an immediate target, but said Iran’s actions affect everyone.
He said Tehran struck multiple targets in an effort to increase pressure to end the war quickly, seeking to prompt affected states to call for an end to hostilities. He said similar patterns were seen in the energy sector, including attacks or pressures affecting energy infrastructure in other countries and attempts to disrupt shipping along critical sea lanes.
He said he does not think countries like Cyprus are targets as such, but argued that good relations with Israel and the United States function as a form of guarantee, particularly regarding security and potential military support.
He also said Cyprus is acquiring enhanced strategic importance, with its relationship with Israel strengthening and gradually becoming one of mutual dependence. He called for deepening relations beyond the military level within a broader framework of cooperation, citing shared regional challenges and threats, including Turkey.
Turkey and Israel relations
Nadan said Turkey and Israel entered the war with an already deeply strained relationship and that Turkey has since shifted its posture in the Middle East. He said some analysts argue Ankara is seeking a new regional role and that domestic discourse includes references to ambitions of influence across a large part of the Middle East.
He said Turkey has moved from being an ally of Israel to being its adversary, alleging it backs and finances Hamas and that Hamas members are present in Turkey. He said this makes Turkey a state that supports actions against Israel and contributes to regional instability.
How do you think Cyprus should position its security and diplomatic strategy as regional alliances shift?