Ankara, Turkey. As Nato prepares for its July 7 summit in Ankara, discussions on defence industry, investment and support for Ukraine are expected to intensify talks on burden-sharing between the United States and Europe. The shift could alter Europe’s security architecture and leave Cyprus facing difficult strategic choices over Turkey’s future role in European defence.
Shift in Nato responsibilities
The summit is expected to formalise ongoing discussions between Washington and its European allies over a gradual reduction of the American military footprint in Europe, with European countries expected to take greater responsibility for their own security.
Senior Policy Advisor and Head of the Observatory of Geopolitics and Diplomacy at the Hellenic Foundation for Foreign and European Policy Ino Afentouli told the Cyprus Mail that the United States has made clear it wants to reduce its military presence in Europe. She said this extends beyond troop numbers to include air, naval and other strategic assets.
Afentouli said that while public statements by US President Donald Trump often attract attention, the process has been under discussion for some time in a structured and coordinated manner between allies. She described the development as a new division of labour within Nato.
Long-term implications
Afentouli said the transition would not happen overnight, but would unfold through long-term planning and negotiations largely conducted at military and strategic levels.
Asked how this might affect Cyprus or Greece, whether directly or indirectly, she said the implications may be indirect rather than immediate.
She said the issue was not that Cyprus or Greece would themselves be directly affected, but rather how the balance within Nato’s southern flank changes.
Turkey’s potential role
Afentouli said that if Europe is to compensate for a reduced US role, countries that are members of Nato but not of the European Union will inevitably become more important. She identified Turkey as the most prominent of these countries.
She said Turkey has the second-largest military in Nato, adding that the United Kingdom, Norway and Canada would also play a greater role.
According to Afentouli, this shift presents a strategic challenge for both Cyprus and Greece.