Prague, Czech Republic. The last nuclear treaty between Russia and the United States is due to expire within hours, raising the risk of a new arms race in which China will also play a key role. Unless Washington and Moscow reach a last-minute understanding, the New START treaty will lapse.
Arms control framework and expiry timing
Arms control deals negotiated in the decades since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis were aimed at reducing the chance of a catastrophic nuclear exchange. When the New START treaty expires, the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will be left without any limits for the first time in more than half a century.
There was confusion about the exact time it would lapse, though arms control experts told Reuters they believed it would happen at 2300 GMT on Wednesday, which would be midnight in Prague, where the treaty was signed in 2010.
Pope Leo’s appeal
As the treaty approached expiry, Pope Leo urged both sides not to abandon the limits set in the agreement.
“I issue an urgent appeal not to let this instrument lapse,” the first U.S. pope said at his weekly audience. “It is more urgent than ever to replace the logic of fear and distrust with a shared ethic, capable of guiding choices toward the common good.”
Potential impact on deployed warheads
Matt Korda, associate director for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said that without an agreement to extend the treaty’s key provisions, neither Russia nor the United States would be constrained if they wanted to add more warheads.
“Without the treaty, each side will be free to upload hundreds of additional warheads onto their deployed missiles and heavy bombers, roughly doubling the sizes of their currently deployed arsenals in the most maximalist scenario,” he said.
Who signed New START and what it said
New START was signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of Vladimir Putin who served a single term as Russia’s president. At the time, relations between the two countries were undergoing a “reset”. The treaty came into force the following year.
What do you think the expiration of New START could mean for future arms control efforts?