Moscow, Russia. Sberbank has reduced its forecast for Russia’s gross domestic product growth in 2026 to between 0.5% and 1%, down from 1% to 1.5%, following a weak first-quarter performance.
Revised forecast ahead of official data
Russia’s largest bank updated its projections ahead of a preliminary first-quarter GDP estimate from the Economy Ministry due on Wednesday and preliminary first-quarter data from the statistics agency scheduled for May 15.
First-quarter contraction and contributing factors
The Russian economy contracted by 1.8% in January and in February amid high interest rates, tax hikes, a strong rouble and weak prices for Russian oil before the Iran war began.
Sberbank cites tight monetary conditions and sector impacts
“The situation in the first quarter of the Russian economy was challenging against the backdrop of tight monetary conditions,” Deputy CEO Taras Skvortsov said.
Skvortsov said mining and manufacturing were hit the hardest, consumer spending slowed significantly affecting retail trade, and the construction sector stagnated in the first quarter.
Inflation forecast above central bank range
Sberbank forecast inflation in 2026 at between 6% and 6.5%, above the central bank’s prediction of between 4.5% and 5.5%.
How do you think tighter monetary conditions could affect Russia’s economic performance in the rest of 2026?