Athens, Greece. UBS issued an optimistic update on the Greek banking landscape, describing it as two distinct investment paths after a robust start to the year. The bank reiterated buy recommendations for Eurobank and the National Bank of Greece.
Ratings and price targets
UBS maintained a buy recommendation for both Eurobank and the National Bank of Greece (NBG), citing robust profitability and strategic upgrades. UBS raised its price target for the National Bank of Greece to €18.20 from €17.50, while keeping Eurobank’s price target unchanged at €4.70.
National Bank of Greece catalyst
UBS said the National Bank of Greece has gained a new upgrade catalyst through its recent bancassurance agreement with Allianz.
Eurobank outlook and forecasts
UBS said limited revisions to its valuation model kept Eurobank’s target unchanged, while noting potential upside against management goals for net interest income and fees. Adjusted earnings per share for Eurobank in 2026 are forecast at €0.43, a 14 per cent increase, with a return on tangible equity of 16.7 per cent.
Return expectations through 2028
UBS forecast Eurobank’s return on tangible equity will rise to approximately 18 per cent by 2028, above official guidance of approximately 17 per cent.
Regional mix and net interest margin
UBS noted Greece remains Eurobank’s core market with 58 per cent of assets, while Cyprus accounts for 27 per cent of assets and 29 per cent of profits. Bulgaria contributes 13 per cent of assets and 16 per cent of profits, with net interest income in Southeast Europe beginning to trend upwards. UBS reported a net interest margin of 2.77 per cent in Southeast Europe, compared with 2.23 per cent in Greece.
Which of the two investment paths highlighted by UBS do you expect to perform better this year?