Kyiv, Ukraine. Rebuilding Ukraine’s economy is expected to cost $588 billion over the next decade, according to an assessment by the World Bank, United Nations, European Commission and the Ukrainian government. The estimate was released on Monday, a day before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Latest assessment and drivers of higher estimate
The institutions said the latest assessment, based on data from February 24, 2022 through December 31, 2025, represents a 12% increase from last year’s estimate. They attributed the rise in part to a 21% increase in damaged or destroyed energy infrastructure compared with a year earlier.
The study does not include data from Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities in January and February, which left tens of thousands across Ukraine without heat, power and water during what the report described as the coldest winter on record in decades.
Damage totals and areas most affected
The estimate, the fifth conducted since the start of the war, found direct damage in Ukraine had reached $195 billion, nearly 11% higher than the previous assessment. The groups said housing, transport and energy sectors were the most affected, and that the level of damage was more than double what was reported in the first report in 2022.
“The damage is immense and increasing continuously,” the report said, adding that damages were concentrated in frontline areas and metropolitan areas including the capital Kyiv.
Diplomacy and displacement
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has faced sustained pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to agree to a ceasefire deal that could entail concessions of land captured by Russian forces. Talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva last week did not produce a breakthrough.
The report said the war, set to enter a fifth year this week, has created the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War Two, with more than 6 million Ukrainians living as refugees outside the country and 4.6 million displaced inside Ukraine as of December 2025.
Economic impact and growth outlook
Ukraine’s gross domestic product is now 21% smaller in real terms than in 2021, before the Russian invasion, the report said. If the war continues this year, Ukraine’s GDP growth is expected to be limited to around 2%, with growth potentially rising to 4% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028 if a ceasefire is in place by the end of the year.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said in a statement that the reconstruction and recovery cost was estimated at nearly $588 billion over the next decade, nearly three times the country’s projected nominal GDP for 2025. She said that amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and homes across Ukraine this winter, Ukrainians have shown resilience and businesses have continued to operate.
What do you think will be the biggest challenge in funding and delivering Ukraine’s reconstruction over the next decade?