Tehran, Iran. A diplomatic impasse and the largest United States military build-up in the Middle East since 2003 are fuelling fears of war, according to analysts and diplomatic sources. Reuters reported that Tehran is making “dangerous miscalculations” while the US president warned Iran to strike a deal on its nuclear programme.
Reuters report and military deployment
Reuters said Iran is insisting on concessions, while Donald Trump has locked himself into a vast military mobilisation he cannot reverse unless Iran abandons its nuclear weapons ambitions. The agency published images showing US military aircraft crowding an airport in the Azores.
In a recent post, Trump said more than 100 refuelling aircraft are airborne over the Middle East or Europe, which he said was double the number used in the June strike on Iran. He has also spoken of an armada led by two aircraft carriers.
A US official said full deployment of American forces would not be completed until mid-March.
Warnings and potential military action
Trump warned Tehran on Thursday that it must strike a deal on its nuclear programme or face “very bad things”. He later referred to the possibility of a “limited-scale attack”.
Geneva talks and outstanding gaps
Following talks in Geneva on Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the sides had agreed on “guiding principles”. The White House said significant gaps remain.
A US official said Iran is expected to submit a written proposal in the coming days, with uranium enrichment and the lifting of Western sanctions remaining red lines.
Planned US-Israel talks and BBC scenario
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 28 February to discuss Iran.
According to the BBC, one optimistic scenario would see US air and naval forces launch strikes targeting bases of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia, a paramilitary force under IRGC control.
What do you think would need to change for the US and Iran to close the gaps in their nuclear talks?