Nicosia, Cyprus. A global energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran is increasingly likely in the short term, though a prolonged disruption remains less probable due to market resilience and existing reserves, according to Andreas Poullikkas.
Assessment of market impact
Poullikkas, a professor of energy systems at Frederick University and former chairman of the Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority, said the conflict could reshape global energy markets and affect Europe and Cyprus.
“The war in Iran has already begun to generate strong turbulence in global energy markets,” he said.
Conflict timeline and targets
Poullikkas said the war erupted on February 28, 2026, with large-scale air strikes by the United States and Israel on nuclear and energy installations in Tehran, and has moved beyond its first week with impacts already visible in international markets.
Oil and gas supply routes
“This conflict affects the supply of both oil and natural gas because Iran controls critical routes and infrastructure through which the majority of its exports pass,” he said.
He added that the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes, remained closed for several days during the early phase of the conflict.
Production and price movements
Poullikkas said Iranian counterattacks on ships and infrastructure in neighbouring countries have reduced production by around two million barrels per day.
Despite the escalation, he said Brent crude oil rose to around $81.40 per barrel after an initial increase of 4.7 per cent.
Sector effects and European gas prices
He said energy sector stocks strengthened, while the aviation sector faced pressure due to rising fuel costs and uncertainty.
European natural gas prices have increased by around 15 per cent due to disruptions in liquefied natural gas flows from Qatar and delays along shipping routes through the Red Sea.
How do you expect higher energy prices to affect you in the coming weeks?