New York, United States. The United Nations weather agency said on Tuesday it expects a moderate or possibly strong El Nino over the coming months, warning that it could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather. The World Meteorological Organization said the pattern is likely to continue until November.
Forecast and timing
The WMO said warm ocean waters are fueling the development of El Nino, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that typically lasts between nine and 12 months. It said above-average temperatures are expected in most parts of the world from June to August.
A shift has been observed in the Equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures rose rapidly from late April to mid-May, suggesting El Nino conditions were developing, the agency said. It added that unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, are creating a reservoir of heat that is driving surface warming.
Impact on weather and climate
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said preparations are needed for a potentially strong El Nino event, which she said could worsen drought, heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and in the ocean.
The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing increased rainfall to southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while causing drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia and sections of southern Asia. The WMO said it can also warm the global climate and fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Context and past events
Saulo said the most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said the world must treat El Nino as an urgent climate warning and called for a shift away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy.
The WMO said there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events, but it can make related impacts such as extreme heatwaves and heavy rainfall more severe.