German state elections add pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz

Berlin, Germany. German voters went to the polls on Sunday in state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, with the results expected to increase pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz after the far-right Alternative for Germany’s recent regional success.

Regional votes

The elections follow the September 6 vote in Saxony-Anhalt, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) came close to winning an absolute majority.

Polls were due to close at 6pm, or 7pm Cyprus time, with initial exit polls expected shortly afterwards. Although regional elections usually attract limited attention outside Germany, the AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt result has prompted concern across Europe.

AfD advances

The AfD sees its Saxony-Anhalt performance as a first step towards winning federal elections scheduled for 2029. In just over a decade, the party has developed from a fringe eurosceptic movement into Germany’s most popular party.

The party advocates tougher action to deport foreigners who have no right to remain in Germany, restoring energy ties with Russia and leaving the euro.

Opinion polls indicate that the AfD is unlikely to repeat its Saxony-Anhalt victory in either of Sunday’s elections. However, both contests are expected to underline its recent gains and renew questions about the “firewall” policy under which other major parties refuse to form coalition agreements with it.

Pressure on Merz

Merz’s approval ratings have fallen to as low as 14 per cent, according to the latest polls, adding to doubts within his conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) over whether he can continue to lead.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in the formerly communist east, the CDU is expected to record its worst-ever result. A Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll published on Friday placed the party at 6 per cent, leaving it at risk of failing to reach the minimum threshold for entry to the state parliament.

Merz was elected last year on a promise of reforms to return Germany’s stagnant economy to growth. He has struggled to win over voters amid resentment over unpopular pension, tax and healthcare reforms, as well as a series of communication missteps.

Senior CDU figures have, for now, rallied behind him, noting that replacing the chancellor would be difficult on constitutional grounds and that any successor would face the same deep economic problems.