Goldman Sachs forecasts €220m interim distribution by National Bank of Greece

Athens, Greece. Goldman Sachs expects the National Bank of Greece to make an interim distribution of around €220 million in the third quarter, despite management neither confirming nor ruling out such a move.

Interim distribution forecast

In its latest report, whose findings were shared by Greek business outlet Insider, the US investment bank said management had left open the possibility of an interim distribution following the bank’s second-quarter results.

Goldman Sachs included an interim dividend of approximately €220 million in its forecasts.

Dividend outlook

The expected distribution would come as the National Bank of Greece continues to pursue a policy of increasing capital returns to shareholders, with Goldman forecasting a gradual rise in payouts over the coming years.

Goldman forecasts a dividend of €0.59 per share for 2026, rising to €0.76 in 2027 and €0.90 in 2028.

Excluding share buybacks, the dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 45 per cent this year to 48.2 per cent in 2027 and 51.7 per cent in 2028.

Earnings estimates

Goldman Sachs has taken a more cautious view of the bank’s earnings outlook, cutting its earnings-per-share estimates by 3 per cent for 2026, 1 per cent for 2027 and 2 per cent for 2028.

The revisions were made despite the investment bank recognising continued strength in revenues and credit expansion at the National Bank of Greece.

Goldman now forecasts reported earnings per share of €1.31 for 2026, €1.58 for 2027 and €1.74 for 2028.

The figures should not be directly compared with the bank’s guidance for adjusted earnings per share of more than €1.40 this year, a distinction relevant to assessing the gap between Goldman’s forecasts and the National Bank of Greece’s guidance.

Despite the more cautious earnings projections, Goldman Sachs does not question the broader momentum of the banking group.