Greek banks forecast to outperform as profits and lending expand
Greek banks are expected to sustain strong profitability and credit growth, with combined net profits projected to rise through 2028.
Athens, Greece. Greek banks are positioned for strong multi-year outperformance, supported by domestic economic momentum, sustained credit expansion and increasingly diversified revenue sources, according to a new analysis.
The sector has largely completed its post-crisis restructuring and is expected to maintain strengthened credit profiles in the short and medium term.
Post-crisis recovery
The report, shared by Greek business outlet Newmoney, said Greece’s banking sector has moved beyond the debt crisis era, when both the economy and financial system were at the centre of euro area turmoil.
More than a decade later, the Greek economy and banking sector are regarded by the international investment community as examples of recovery and resilience on Europe’s periphery.
Andrea Costanzo, vice-president of European financial institution ratings at Morningstar DBRS, told S&P Global Market Intelligence that favourable economic conditions, sustainable credit expansion, improving revenue diversification and upgraded risk profiles would support the sector.
“We expect Greek banks to maintain their strengthened credit profiles over the short and medium term,” Costanzo said.
Profitability outlook
Despite challenges and geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East, profitability at Greece’s systemic banks is forecast to rise slightly in 2026 compared with 2025.
Alessandro Boratti, deputy managing director and head of Greek bank analysis at Scope Ratings, said profitability was supported by sustained interest rates, new lending activity and rising fee income.
“Beyond 2026, we see profitability remaining strong relative to the European average, supported by consistent domestic growth and further business diversification,” Boratti said.
Major banks’ projections
Visible Alpha consensus estimates project that total net profits at National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank, Eurobank and Piraeus Bank will rise by 6.7 per cent in 2026.
Profits are expected to increase by a further 14.8 per cent in 2027 and maintain strong momentum into 2028.
National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank and Eurobank have raised their earnings-per-share targets for 2026. Piraeus Bank has confirmed that it remains on track to meet its earnings-per-share target of €0.90.
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