Copenhagen, Denmark. Danes began voting on Tuesday in an election that could hand Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen a third term, with her stance against U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland featuring in the campaign alongside domestic cost-of-living concerns.
Polls point to weaker result for Social Democrats
Opinion polls show Frederiksen’s Social Democrats are headed for their weakest result since before World War Two. Many voters blame her for not doing enough to protect Denmark’s Nordic welfare model, while others cite growing weariness after nearly seven years of her leadership.
Early election and shifting campaign focus
Frederiksen, 48, called the vote months before an October deadline, which observers said was an effort to capitalise on an uptick in popularity when Trump’s rhetoric about controlling Greenland intensified in January and he refused to rule out military force.
The Greenland issue has since moved to a less heated diplomatic track and has been overtaken by domestic concerns including a proposal for a wealth tax and debates about immigration.
Leadership pitch and foreign policy message
Frederiksen has campaigned on a promise that her leadership will help Denmark, a nation of 6 million, navigate a complex relationship with Washington and a European response to Russia’s war with Ukraine.
“I know that sometimes I express myself a bit bluntly,” she said during a recent campaign event. “But given the times we live in, it is perhaps very good that there are some things that cannot be misunderstood: that Russia should not be allowed to win or that Greenland is not for sale.”
Coalition prospects and parliamentary arithmetic
Frederiksen has led Denmark since 2019 and was the first premier to bridge the left-right divide in Denmark in more than 40 years, but her coalition is projected to lose its parliamentary majority.
Political analyst Hans Engell said the election is largely about Frederiksen, adding that while some voters view her as the right person at a time of crisis, others see her as too authoritarian.
Support levels and expected seat count
The Social Democrats, whose tough asylum reforms had alienated some on the left, have recovered in polls since the Greenland crisis, rising from a December low of 17% to around 21%.
However, the left-leaning bloc is still expected to fall short of the 90 seats needed for a majority in Denmark’s 179-seat Folketing, with projections pointing to around 85 seats.
How do you think domestic cost-of-living concerns will influence Denmark’s election outcome?
