Nicosia, Cyprus. A new scientific study has quantified the direct impact of increasingly frequent and intense dust episodes on solar energy production in Cyprus. Researchers found severe dust events can cut photovoltaic electricity output by more than 20% on otherwise clear-sky days.
Study and key findings
The study was conducted by researchers at the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C) of the Cyprus Institute, in collaboration with the Cyprus University of Technology (Tepak) and industry partners. According to a statement, the findings are particularly important for Cyprus given the growing frequency and intensity of dust outbreaks.
The researchers found that the largest losses occur during otherwise clear-sky conditions, when solar generation would normally be strong. During dust events, electricity output can drop sharply and unexpectedly, creating challenges for accurate forecasting and grid management.
Data and methodology
To reach these conclusions, the researchers used a newly developed machine learning approach to analyse more than 1.6 million hourly data points and PV production records from 472 solar installations across Cyprus. This enabled them to distinguish between the effects of clouds and mineral dust on solar radiation and to identify precisely when and by how much dust storms suppress solar energy production.
The study said such information is critical for power system planning and solar forecasting in dust-prone regions.
Researcher comment
Study contributor Theodoros Christoudias, Associate Professor at CARE-C, the Cyprus Institute, said: “Dust outbreaks are among the most impactful stressors on solar energy systems in the Mediterranean,” adding: “Through this research we were able to directly quantify losses hour by hour, under real operating conditions.”
How could improved dust forecasting change how you use or plan solar energy in Cyprus?
