Brussels, Belgium. The European Central Bank has published wage tracker data indicating that negotiated wage growth in the euro area is set to moderate in 2026, signalling easing pay pressures across the bloc.
Headline wage tracker projections and coverage
The ECB’s headline wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements and smooths one-off payments over time, indicates negotiated wage growth of 3.2 per cent in 2025, based on coverage of 49.9 per cent of employees in participating countries, and 2.4 per cent in 2026, based on coverage of 33.1 per cent.
Compared with the December 2025 data release, the 2026 figure has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points.
Alternative measures including and excluding one-off payments
The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments shows negotiated wage growth of 3.0 per cent in 2025 and 2.7 per cent in 2026.
The measure excluding one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth easing from 3.9 per cent in 2025 to 2.7 per cent in 2026, with the 2026 figure revised up by 0.1 percentage points.
Methodological explanation
The ECB said the headline tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages because it spreads one-off payments over time, while the unsmoothed version is more appropriate for annual comparisons as it avoids double smoothing of one-off payments.
2026 trajectory and drivers
For 2026, the headline tracker stands at 2.1 per cent in the first half of the year and 2.7 per cent in the second half.
The ECB said the rise in the wage path during the year reflects the dissipation of the mechanical downward effect caused by large one-off payments made in 2024 but not repeated in 2025.
These mechanical effects are expected to virtually disappear over the course of 2026, leading to a convergence between the trackers with one-off payments and the measure excluding them as such payments become less relevant.
Dispersion across countries
The ECB wage tracker also suggests reduced dispersion in negotiated wage pressures across euro area countries in 2026 compared with previous years.
How do you expect moderating negotiated wage growth in 2026 to affect your economic outlook?
