Brussels, Belgium. Forecasts published last week indicate the EU could be reliant on the United States for 80 per cent of its LNG imports by 2030, potentially making about 40 per cent of all EU gas and LNG imports US-sourced. The projections come as the EU moves to end Russian LNG and pipeline gas imports by 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Forecasts point to increased US share in EU gas supply
Forecasts show that by 2030 the EU could be reliant on the US for 80 per cent of its LNG imports. This could translate into about 40 per cent of all EU gas and LNG imports coming from the US, a level compared in the forecasts to EU dependence on Russian gas prior to the invasion of Ukraine, which was described as a risky “dominant and monopolistic position.”
EU agrees timetable for ending Russian LNG and pipeline gas imports
The EU has agreed a full ban on Russian LNG by the end of 2026 and a ban on Russian pipeline gas by late 2027. The forecasts indicate these measures would reinforce reliance on US LNG.
EU remains largest buyer of US LNG
The EU is already the largest buyer of US LNG, taking over 50 per cent of US LNG exports in 2025. The forecasts describe this as an over-reliance that poses risks to future supply security amid an unravelling EU-US political relationship under President Trump, and as contradicting EU plans to enhance energy security through diversification.
Political tensions raise concerns about supply security
The concerns intensified last week when President Trump threatened to take Greenland over by force and later threatened additional tariffs on eight European countries that sent military contingents to Greenland. The threat receded late last week in Davos when Trump backed off the Greenland threat and said he would follow the negotiation route, though the forecasts state the risk remains.
Potential consequences of disruption cited
The forecasts state that if tariffs could be used in a retaliatory manner, similar pressure could be applied to energy supplies, turning the US oil and gas position into leverage. They warn that a substantial and abrupt stop in LNG supplies could cause immediate consequences, including industrial disruption, and increase Europe’s vulnerability to a political dispute with the US.
Reliance extends beyond LNG to oil imports
The forecasts also cite EU dependence on US oil, stating that over 16 per cent of EU oil imports in 2024 came from the US, referencing Eurostat data and a figure titled “EU energy imports by country, 2024.”
How should the EU balance its plan to end Russian gas imports with the goal of diversifying energy supply sources?
