Brussels, Belgium. The heads of five European intelligence agencies have expressed doubts that a peace deal in Ukraine can be reached this year, with one describing U.S.-brokered talks as “negotiation theatre.” The officials said Russia is using the process to seek sanctions relief and bilateral deals with Washington.
Assessment of Russia’s aims
The five officials, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Russia did not want to end the war quickly, a view that contrasts with the White House, which has said a deal is “reasonably close” and is pushing to clinch an agreement by June ahead of U.S. congressional mid-term elections in November.
“Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. They are seeking their strategic goals, and those have not changed,” one official said, adding that Moscow’s objectives included the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and transforming Ukraine into a neutral buffer state.
Talks and demands
Four of the five chiefs said Russia was using the talks, the latest round of which took place in Geneva this week, to press for sanctions relief and secure business deals with the United States. Two officials said Moscow was trying to split the negotiations into two tracks, with one focused on the war and another on bilateral arrangements with Washington.
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators held their third U.S.-mediated meeting of 2026 this week without any breakthrough on territory. Moscow is demanding that Kyiv withdraw from the roughly 20% of Donetsk it still controls, which Ukraine has refused.
Claims of proposed bilateral deals
Zelenskiy said his intelligence services had told him that U.S. and Russian negotiators were discussing bilateral cooperation deals worth as much as $12 trillion, proposed by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev. The European officials did not provide details on those discussions, though one said the offer was designed to appeal to Trump and to Russian oligarchs whose loyalty President Vladimir Putin needs to retain as Russia’s economy faces growing headwinds.
Concerns about concessions and negotiating capacity
A second intelligence chief said Russia neither wanted nor needed a quick peace and that its economy was “not on the verge of collapse.” A third official warned against assuming that Ukraine ceding the Donetsk region would quickly produce a settlement, predicting Russia would make further demands. “In the case of the Russians getting these concessions, I think that this is maybe the beginning of actual negotiations,” the official said.
The intelligence chiefs also raised concerns about the calibre of Western negotiators. The U.S. team is led by Steve Witkoff, a real estate developer and long-time Trump associate, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. The officials said neither are trained diplomats nor have specific expertise on Russia or Ukraine. One official described the level of negotiating skill across the West, including on the European side, as “very limited.”
White House response
The White House rejected the assessments. Spokeswoman Anna Kelly said anonymous criticism did not help U.S. efforts to end the war. “President Trump and his team have done more than anyone to bring both sides together to stop the killing and deliver a peace deal,” she said.
What do you think is the main obstacle to a peace deal in Ukraine this year?
