London, United Kingdom. Global alcohol consumption is expected to decline over the next decade despite population growth and rising demand in India, according to market research firm IWSR. The firm said consumption volumes are not expected to stop falling until after 2031 and will remain below last year’s levels in 2035.
Long-term consumption forecast
In its first 10-year forecast covering 160 markets, IWSR said global alcohol consumption volumes in 2035 will be 1% below last year’s levels, despite a 9% rise in the global number of legal-age drinkers.
The firm said annual global per capita consumption of pure alcohol is expected to fall by the equivalent of two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person per year by 2035.
Industry pressures
Sales across the sector, including those of Johnnie Walker whisky maker Diageo and Anheuser-Busch InBev, which owns beer labels Corona and Stella Artois, have contracted since 2023, while stock market valuations have declined.
Drinks makers have said that after a post-pandemic boom, demand was affected by rising living costs, changing consumer habits, health concerns and the rise of weight-loss drugs, which may affect users’ drinking rates.
Changing consumer preferences
Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR, said changing consumer tastes were a major challenge and that companies had to adapt rather than “rely on past successes”.
IWSR said spirits, beer and wine will all lose volume by 2035 as newer types of drink, such as canned cocktails, take their place.
Regional demand shifts
IWSR forecast a drop of more than 18% in alcohol servings consumed by 2035 in China and the United States, the world’s biggest drinking markets. It also said declines will be marked in Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.
India is expected to become the world’s second-largest alcohol market behind China by 2032, replacing the United States, with a 38% increase over the next 10 years. Other countries forecast to post rising demand are Mexico, with 13%, Vietnam, with 15%, and Colombia, with a 26% increase in drinking.
