London, United Kingdom. Average global temperatures are forecast to reach near-record levels in the next five years, with the Arctic expected to warm faster than other regions, according to a report by the U.N. weather agency and the UK’s Met Office on Thursday.
Temperature forecast
The annual report, which provides regional predictions for temperature and rainfall, said annual global mean near-surface temperatures are expected to range between 1.3C and 1.9C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period.
Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, told Reuters that there is “very clear evidence” that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature is continuing to rise.
Paris threshold
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments pledged to try to keep the average global temperature rise below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
The report said it is very likely that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
It also predicted that there will be one year between 2026 and 2030 when average global temperatures will surpass the warmest year on record, 2024, when they exceeded 1.5C above the pre-industrial era for the first time.
Arctic warming
The report said Arctic winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere over the next five years are projected to rise at more than 3.5 times the global average, reaching around 2.8C above the 1991-2020 baseline.
Seabrook said temporarily crossing the 1.5C threshold does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed because it refers to a long-term average over 20 years rather than a single year’s exceedance. She added that as the world gets closer to that threshold, it becomes increasingly likely to pass it more often.
“The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly,” Seabrook said.
Cyprus heat
The report comes after the summer of 2023 was recorded as the hottest ever in Cyprus. The season included a record-breaking July with 16 consecutive days of temperatures above 40C in the capital.
