Washington, United States. Iran and the United States are moving rapidly toward a possible military conflict as hopes diminish for a diplomatic solution to their standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program, according to officials and diplomats in the Gulf and Europe.
Rising expectations of conflict in the region
Iran’s Gulf neighbours and Israel consider a conflict more likely than a settlement, the sources said, with Washington building up one of its biggest military deployments in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Regional officials said oil-producing Gulf countries are preparing for a possible military confrontation that they fear could spin out of control and destabilize the Middle East.
Israel’s preparations and assessment of talks
A source familiar with planning said Israel’s government believes Tehran and Washington are at an impasse and is making preparations for possible joint military action with the United States, though no decision has been made on whether to carry out such an operation.
Two Israeli officials told Reuters they believe gaps between Washington and Tehran are unbridgeable and that the chances of a near-term military escalation are high.
It would be the second time the United States and Israel have attacked Iran in less than a year, following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against military and nuclear facilities last June.
Stalled negotiations and political constraints
Some regional officials said Tehran is miscalculating by holding out for concessions, while U.S. President Donald Trump is boxed in by the military buildup and unable to scale it back without losing face if there is no firm commitment from Iran to abandon what the officials described as its nuclear weapons ambitions.
“Both sides are sticking to their guns,” said Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran specialist, adding that nothing meaningful can emerge “unless the U.S. and Iran walk back from their red lines – which I don’t think they will.”
“What Trump can’t do is assemble all this military, and then come back with a ‘so-so’ deal and pull out the military. I think he thinks he’ll lose face,” Eyre said. “If he attacks, it’s going to get ugly quickly.”
Two rounds of Iran-U.S. talks have stalled on core issues, including uranium enrichment, missiles and sanctions relief.
What developments would you be watching most closely as Iran-U.S. talks remain stalled?
