Tehran, Iran. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes, sharply reducing passage through a key waterway for global oil and liquefied natural gas. United Nations data shows traffic through the strait has fallen by 97% since the conflict began on 28 February.
Traffic collapse and strategic impact
The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. The strait is the only sea exit for the oil and gas exports of Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commanders have threatened for decades to close the strait, including during nuclear tensions in 2016 and 2018 and during strikes on Iran last June. Analysts had previously viewed such a step as a last resort due to long-term strategic consequences and the risk of retaliation against Iran’s energy sector.
Conflict developments and market concerns
The US-Israeli assault that began on 28 February, which killed Iran’s supreme leader on the first day, altered the situation, according to the article. Iranian officials have described the war as existential, with the Revolutionary Guards increasingly directing strategy.
Oil prices briefly climbed to their highest level since 2022 earlier this week. The United Nations has warned that sustained high prices could trigger a cost-of-living crisis similar to that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Fertiliser flows and food security risks
A prolonged conflict could also cause a fertiliser shock that threatens global food security. Around 33% of the world’s fertilisers, including sulphur and ammonia, pass through the strait, according to analytics firm Kpler. The article says an extended war could fuel fears of a global economic crisis comparable to the Middle East oil shocks of the 1970s.
Shipping chokepoint and military capabilities
The shipping lanes through the strait are two nautical miles wide, with vessels navigating past Iranian islands and a mountainous coastline. While Iran’s conventional navy has largely been destroyed, the Revolutionary Guards retain fast attack craft, mini-submarines, mines and drone capabilities.
Iran is estimated to produce around 10,000 drones per month, according to the Centre for Information Resilience.
Escort feasibility and ongoing threats
Retired Royal Navy commander Tom Sharpe said escorting three or four ships a day through the strait would be feasible in the short term using seven or eight destroyers providing air cover, but sustaining such an operation for months would require significantly more resources.
Adel Bakawan, director of the European Institute for Middle East and North African Studies, said that even if Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capacity were neutralised, ships would still face threats from suicide operations.
US and European responses
US President Donald Trump said on 3 March that the United States would provide protection for oil tankers through the strait and ordered the US Development Finance Corporation to provide insurance and guarantees for shipping companies. The article says attacks have continued and very little traffic is getting through.
French President Emmanuel Macron said several European countries, India and other Asian states were planning a joint protection mission, adding that such an operation could only begin once the conflict ends. France is deploying around a dozen naval vessels, including its aircraft carrier strike group, to the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and potentially the strait itself.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has spoken to the German and Italian leaders about options to support commercial shipping.
How do you think governments should balance protecting shipping with the risk of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz?
