Beirut, Lebanon. The war between Israel and Hezbollah is pushing Lebanon’s fragile state and society toward a breaking point, as Shi’ite Muslims are displaced and political and sectarian fault lines deepen.
Analysts warn of heightened destabilisation
Lebanese analysts and figures across the political spectrum say the renewed conflict could be among the most destabilising crises since the 1975-90 civil war.
Israel has threatened Gaza-like destruction and an occupation of southern Lebanon, while splits in Lebanon have sharpened over Hezbollah’s weapons. Hezbollah has refused to give up its arms despite a year-long effort by the state to disarm it peacefully.
Displacement fuels local tensions
Israeli bombardment and orders to leave have driven Hezbollah’s Shi’ite constituents into Christian, Druze and other areas, where many blame the group for starting a war in support of Tehran 15 months after the last conflict.
Local authorities have been vetting displaced people seeking rented accommodation, citing fears that some may be targets for Israel.
Government-Hezbollah tensions escalate
Tensions between Hezbollah and the government have worsened. The administration led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun has banned Hezbollah’s military wing, called for talks with Israel, and demanded that Iran’s ambassador leave.
Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati compared the government to Vichy France leaders sentenced to death for collaborating with Nazi Germany in World War Two. “We are capable of turning the country upside down,” he told a Lebanese media outlet, although he later said his remarks were taken out of context.
Druze lawmaker Wael Abu Faour said internal tensions are rising due to divisions over the war and displacement and “the defiant rhetoric from more than one side,” adding that this was exacerbating fears for internal stability.
How do you think Lebanon’s leaders should address rising internal tensions as displacement continues?
