Jerusalem, Israel. Israeli officials have acknowledged in closed discussions that there is no certainty the war against Iran will lead to the collapse of its clerical government, a senior Israeli official told Reuters. Officials said there has been no sign of an Iranian uprising amid bombardment.
No certainty of regime collapse amid strikes
The senior Israeli official said Israeli officials have privately recognized that a collapse of Iran’s ruling system is not assured. The official did not say what led Israel to that assessment.
Israeli view on U.S. role and possible end to conflict
Despite comments by U.S. President Donald Trump that the war may finish soon, Israel’s assessment is that Washington is not close to instructing an end to the conflict, according to two Israeli officials.
Impact of bombing and conditions inside Iran
The U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a number of senior military commanders, but it also killed civilians and damaged homes and public buildings, angering many Iranians.
With missiles striking across Tehran and other cities, and with Iranian authorities threatening deadly force against anyone who protests, some Iranians who might otherwise take to the streets may fear to do so until the war ends.
Long-term pressures and recent unrest
Iran’s long-term challenges were described as worsening, with harsher sanctions affecting the economy and little prospect of improvement for a population whose protests in January were crushed with thousands dead.
Netanyahu statements on Iranian action
On the day Israel launched its joint air campaign with the United States, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said joint action would create conditions for Iranians to “take their destiny into their own hands.” He referred to Iran’s ethnic and linguistic minorities, including Kurds, Baluchis and Arabs, amid reports that the United States or Israel may back uprisings by those groups.
In a statement on Tuesday, Netanyahu said Israel aspired to help Iranians “cast off the yoke of tyranny,” but added that “it is up to them,” which was presented as an acknowledgement that an uprising does not appear imminent.
How do you assess Israel’s view that an Iranian uprising is not imminent during the conflict?
