Nicosia, Cyprus. The Middle East conflict has entered its second week, with heavy casualties and effects extending beyond the battlefield. Manos Karagiannis said the region’s complex balances make responsible predictions about the crisis difficult.
Rising stakes and potential escalation
Karagiannis, Professor of International Relations at the University of Macedonia and Reader in International Security at King’s College London, told Phileleftheros that the stakes for all sides are enormous.
He said regional instability could intensify, energy flows could be disrupted, and the US–Israeli strategy could reach a dead end with no clear way out. He added that, for Iran, the worst-case scenario would be a conflict that triggers internal collapse and civil war involving the Revolutionary Guards, the regular army, ethnic minorities and anti-regime movements.
Iran’s response and multi-front risks
Iran appears determined to respond using its military capabilities and its network of allied groups across the region, raising the prospect of a multi-front conflict that could disrupt energy flows, threaten international security and destabilise the Middle East.
Implications for Cyprus and Greece
Karagiannis said Cyprus faces broader geopolitical and economic repercussions, citing the presence of British bases on the island, increased military activity across the region, and Cyprus’s proximity to crisis zones.
He also addressed Greece’s naval and air presence, saying it sends a message of resolve and reinforces deterrence by showing that Cyprus’s security is an integral part of Greek defence strategy and by raising the cost of any aggressive action in the region.
Timing of US strike on Iran
The article asked why the Trump administration chose that moment to strike Iran. According to official statements, three factors drove the decision, including the President’s frustration with the impasse in nuclear negotiations and the conclusion that Tehran was not meeting American demands and was continuing activities Washington considered threatening.
It also cited the argument that Iran possesses missile systems capable of directly targeting US military installations and allies in Europe and the Middle East.
What impact do you think the conflict’s widening regional dynamics could have on Cyprus’s security and economy?
