Peterhead, Scotland. Former fisherman James Buchan said he plans to vote for Reform UK for the first time, citing fears for the local economy and support for the party’s pledges on North Sea energy and fishing. Polls indicate Reform is set to gain support across Scotland and Wales in elections this week.
Voter shift in Peterhead
Buchan, 38, said his previous distrust of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has been eclipsed by concerns that decades of British government policy have hollowed out the local economy. He said he supports Reform’s pledges to maximise oil and gas production in the North Sea and restrict access for European fishing boats as a way to revive Peterhead’s fortunes.
“Some of the areas around here are starting to look like slums,” Buchan told Reuters while getting his hair trimmed on the high street, pointing out boarded shops. “We need to find a way to get money circulating back through our economy.”
Poll forecasts across Scotland and Wales
Voters like Buchan are expected to contribute to a surge in support for Reform in elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, as well as local councils across England. Reform is leading in national polls ahead of governing Labour and the opposition Conservatives before a general election due by 2029.
Polls indicate Reform, whose post-Brexit rise has been largely driven by English support, is making inroads in Scotland and Wales, reflecting dissatisfaction with the UK’s traditional two-party system. In Thursday’s vote, it is likely to become the official opposition in Scotland and Wales to local parties, the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru.
Reform’s share of the vote is forecast to rise to about 20% in Scotland, from 0.2% in 2021, and to almost 30% in Wales, from about 1%. Labour is expected to lose votes, with the Conservatives reduced to a handful of seats.
Economic decline and populist message
Scotland and Wales, which have historically leaned left, have become receptive to Reform’s populist message, including calls to overhaul political systems, remove what it describes as “liberal establishment elites,” and crack down on immigration to focus on local issues.
The high street in Bargoed, a town in the Welsh valleys, also has boarded-up shops. The community, affected by the closure of a coal mine in the 1970s, is classed as suffering “deep-rooted deprivation,” according to the Welsh government.
How do you think economic decline is influencing voting patterns in your area?
