Nicosia, Cyprus. The balance of military forces in Cyprus remains clearly in Turkey’s favour, according to a report published on Thursday. The Cyprus Centre for Strategic Studies cited Turkish superiority in manpower, firepower, aeronautical capabilities and operational support.
Military balance and force ratios
The report said Turkish forces maintain “significant superiority in manpower, firepower, aeronautical capabilities and operational support”, and that the upgrading of military infrastructure in the north has strengthened Ankara’s strategic position in the Levant.
According to the analysis, there are approximately 3.6 Turkish soldiers for every National Guard member on the island. In battle tanks, the ratio stands at roughly 2.1 to 1 in favour of Turkish forces.
Operational integration and support capacity
The centre said Turkish military units in Cyprus do not operate independently, describing them as “an extension of the broader military and administrative system of Turkey”.
Using international military models concerning operational support structures, the report estimated that Turkey has external logistical and administrative support capacity ranging between 80,000 and 102,000 personnel capable of sustaining forces in a potential theatre of operations on the island.
By contrast, the report said the republic has “limited strategic depth and clearly smaller capabilities for long term operational support”, which it said directly affects deterrence capabilities.
Defence strategy and spending
The analysis said Cyprus must adapt its defence strategy towards “a more flexible and technologically oriented defence model”, citing developments in unmanned systems, electronic warfare and information capabilities as factors reshaping modern warfare.
It also said available defence spending remains below declared objectives, adding that achieving expenditure equal to two per cent of GDP “exclusively on armaments does not seem realistically achievable under the current fiscal and geopolitical data”.
Role of Greece and ELDYK
The report identified Greece as “the most important external strategic factor for the security of Cyprus”. It added that the presence of the Greek force ELDYK carries “an institutional, historical and political strategic dimension” but does not by itself alter the military balance on the island.
How should Cyprus prioritise defence capabilities as warfare becomes more technology-driven?
