Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. A senior UAE official said Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, as efforts to end the Iran war remained at an impasse.
Strait of Hormuz disruption and energy market impact
Two months into the conflict, the vital sea channel remains largely closed because of an Iranian blockade, while the US Navy is blocking exports of Iranian crude oil. The blockade has choked off 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies, pushing up global energy prices and increasing concerns about an economic downturn.
Ceasefire and reports of possible new strikes
A ceasefire has been in place since April 8, but reports that US President Donald Trump was to be briefed on plans for new military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate pushed global oil prices up to a four-year high at one point on Thursday.
Iran has activated air defences and plans a wide response if attacked, having assessed that there will be a short, intensive US strike possibly followed by an Israeli attack, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Diplomatic uncertainty and conflict toll
Washington has not said what its next steps are. Trump said on Tuesday he was unhappy with the latest proposal from Iran, and mediator Pakistan has not set a date for new talks on ending a war that has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.
After US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iran fired at US bases, infrastructure and US-linked companies in Gulf states, while the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel, which responded with strikes on Lebanon.
UAE cites international law as guarantor of navigation
UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the “collective international will and provisions of international law” were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the strait.
“And, of course, no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbors,” Gargash wrote.
US War Powers deadline and administration position
Trump faces a formal US deadline on Friday to end the war or make the case to Congress for extending it under the 1973 War Powers Resolution.
A senior administration official said that, for the purposes of the resolution, hostilities had terminated due to the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington, and the date is set to pass without altering the course of the war.
How do you think continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could affect global energy prices in the coming weeks?
