Kyiv, Ukraine. Ukraine appears to be gaining an advantage in its war with Russia, with an analysis cited by Axios indicating that Kyiv can now strike almost any target inside Russian territory using advanced drones and long-range missiles. Attacks on energy facilities, weapons manufacturing plants and military bases are being reported more frequently, while Russian forces continue heavy strikes inside Ukraine.
Strikes inside Russia
Russia is facing fuel shortages following repeated strikes on refineries. At least one attack caused panic in Moscow, with residents seeking shelter after explosions, while reports also described “black rain.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had been forced to move much of its air defence to protect central Moscow and a presidential residence, leaving other areas more exposed. Russian President Vladimir Putin said there were “problems” and “certain shortages” linked to the strikes, while also seeking to minimize their significance.
Continued Russian attacks on Ukraine
Russian forces continue to carry out major attacks in Ukraine. Moscow launched new overnight strikes against Kyiv that killed at least 30 people, while Russian troops continued attempts to advance along the front line in Donetsk despite heavy casualties.
Ukraine’s evolving tactics
Zelensky has repeatedly described the operations as “long-range sanctions,” referring to Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets located hundreds of kilometres from the border. Ukraine’s weapons and tactics have become more sophisticated over the course of the war.
Videos circulating on social media this week showed Flamingo missiles, manufactured by Fire Point, striking targets including the Titan-Barrikady plant, where Russian artillery systems are produced.
Last summer, images from the “Spiderweb” operation showed small drones that had been moved covertly across the border and fitted with explosives attacking parked and unprotected warplanes. The development marks a major change from the early phase of the war, with Ukraine now relying heavily on domestically produced drones and modified missiles to strike areas including Moscow and St. Petersburg, far from the border.
Assessment and constraints
According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Kyiv has carried the war into Russian territory in 2026 through a series of short, medium and long-range strikes intended to disrupt and destroy Russian supply chains and logistics. The report said this amounted to a classic air interdiction campaign conducted with drones and missiles rather than aircraft.
The shift took time in part because of restrictions imposed by Western countries on which weapons Ukraine could use and where and how they could be deployed. Not all Ukrainian attacks succeed, as Russian interception and electronic warfare systems continue to be effective in some cases.
Next phase
Zelensky said Ukraine has launched a 40-day operation aimed at forcing Russia back to the negotiating table. For now, there are few signs of significant diplomatic movement.
