Washington, United States. The United States can determine with certainty that about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal has been destroyed as the US and Israeli war on Iran nears its one-month mark, according to five people familiar with US intelligence.
Assessment of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities
Four sources said the status of about another third of Iran’s missiles is less clear, but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.
One source said the intelligence was similar regarding Iran’s drone capability, with some degree of certainty that about a third had been destroyed.
The assessment, which has not been previously reported, indicates that while most of Iran’s missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant inventory and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once fighting stops.
Trump remarks and potential next steps
The intelligence contrasts with President Donald Trump’s public remarks on Thursday that Iran had “very few rockets left.” Trump also appeared to acknowledge the threat from remaining Iranian missiles and drones to any future US operations aimed at safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters has reported that Trump is weighing whether to escalate the conflict by deploying US troops to Iranian shores along the Strait.
“The problem with the straits is this: let’s say we do a great job. We say we got 99 per cent (of their missiles). 1 per cent is unacceptable, because 1 per cent is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars,” Trump said at a televised Cabinet meeting on Thursday.
The Pentagon and White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Democratic response
Democratic Representative Seth Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who served four tours in Iraq, declined to comment on Reuters’ findings but disputed Trump’s claims about the impact of the war on Iran’s arsenal.
“If Iran is smart they’ve retained some of their capability – they’re not using everything that they have. And they’re laying in wait,” Moulton said.
What do you think the conflicting public statements and intelligence assessments suggest about Iran’s remaining capabilities?
