Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula statistically tied in Brazil runoff poll

Brasilia, Brazil. Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are statistically tied in a simulated runoff ahead of next month’s election, according to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released on Thursday.

Runoff scenario

The poll showed Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, receiving 46.4% of the vote in a second-round runoff, compared with 46.2% for Lula.

In late August, Lula led the senator by 47.1% to 42.6%.

First-round estimates

In a first-round scenario, Lula was projected to receive 43.0% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro with 37.4%, Augusto Cury with 6.6% and Renan Santos with 6.5%.

The previous poll showed Lula at 43.4% and Bolsonaro at 33.7% in the first round.

Election timetable

If no candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two leading candidates will advance to a runoff on October 25.

AtlasIntel surveyed 5,000 people between September 4 and 9. The poll has a margin of error of one percentage point.