Latvian PM’s United List leads parliamentary election by unexpectedly wide margin

Riga, Latvia. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist, pro-Ukraine United List party won Saturday’s parliamentary election by an unexpectedly wide margin, partial results showed. The vote took place amid voter unease over warnings of potential Russian aggression.

Results and coalition prospects

With 88% of ballots counted, United List had 36.6% of the vote, followed by the populist, MAGA-style Latvia First on 13.4%. Latvia First had courted Latvia’s substantial ethnic Russian minority before the election.

The pro-Russian Sovereign Power party ranked third in the exit poll with 11.6%, followed by the nationalist National Alliance, which advocates a hardline approach to the Kremlin, on 9.1%.

Responding to exit polls earlier in the evening, Kulbergs said he hoped to remain prime minister but did not want to govern with Latvia First. The partial results indicated that he would still need coalition partners to form a government.

“It’s remarkably good. I was not expecting such a result,” Kulbergs said at his party’s headquarters in Riga.

Warnings over Russian aggression

Baltic countries have warned for months that Russia is conducting sabotage, cyberattacks and other hybrid operations across Europe to undermine support for Ukraine and spread fear. Western officials, however, dismiss concerns that Moscow is capable of launching a direct assault on NATO, of which Latvia is a member.

Russia says the accusations are baseless and the result of anti-Russian hysteria.

Security and spending commitments

Kulbergs, a 47-year-old businessman and amateur rally driver, came to power in May after the previous coalition collapsed over its handling of incidents in which stray military drones entered Latvia undetected. Although the drones were Ukrainian, officials blamed Russia for causing them to divert from their flight paths.

During his campaign, Kulbergs promised to expand Latvia’s anti-drone capabilities and maintain defence spending at 5% of gross domestic product, one of the highest levels in NATO.

“The priority, in my view, is, of course, security – security in Latvia,” said Megija Nordena, 21, from Riga. “And then … as a student, I’d say support for students, the economy, and also support for pensioners.”