Netanyahu faces test of security credentials ahead of October 27 election

Jerusalem, Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is relying on a familiar campaign message as he seeks to retain power in the October 27 election: that he is best placed to keep Israelis safe in a hostile region. Four weeks before the vote, he faces questions about his security record following Hamas’ surprise attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

First election since the attack

The election is Israel’s first since its single deadliest day and the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust. The assault, planned by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, caught the Middle East’s most powerful military off guard and was one of Israel’s worst security breaches.

“Netanyahu does not surrender” is the official slogan of Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party. Most opinion polls predict the party will lose around a third of its parliamentary seats.

In speeches and short campaign videos, Netanyahu depicts his political rivals as weak leftists who lack the resolve to fight Israel’s enemies or stand up to its critics abroad.

Questions over security record

Yohanan Plesner, president of the non-partisan Israel Democracy Institute, said it was uncertain whether Netanyahu, who turns 77 days before the election, could still present himself as the leader best equipped to handle national security and diplomacy.

Netanyahu has recently denied media reports that his Middle East partners warned him of a potential Hamas attack. His political rivals have seized on the allegations.

“This is a new thing. Mr Netanyahu ran in elections, but never after overseeing such a dramatic security failure,” Plesner said. He described the vote as, in many ways, a referendum on Netanyahu, his government’s responsibility for the failure and their handling of Israel’s response.

War across multiple fronts

The Hamas assault precipitated a multi-front war in which Israel’s military had some success against Hamas and its allies Hezbollah and Iran, but made few strategic gains. Netanyahu says the conflict has transformed the region and will continue to do so.