Study warns climate pressures could put 49 per cent of Cyprus households at risk of poverty

Nicosia, Cyprus. The share of Cyprus households facing poverty risk could climb to 49 per cent by the century’s end as worsening heatwaves and droughts erode earnings and widen inequality, new research suggests. That projection assumes warming of 2.7 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial temperatures and no substantial adaptation action by Cyprus.

Poverty risks under different warming scenarios

The study, published in Global Environmental Change and highlighted on Thursday by the Cyprus Institute (CyI), projects an increase from the current 14.9 per cent of households at risk of poverty.

Keeping global warming to 2 degrees Celsius would not eliminate the economic damage: under that scenario, around 25 per cent of households could face poverty risk, the research found.

The researchers expect household budgets and economic growth in Cyprus to come under greater strain as extreme heat occurs more frequently alongside extended droughts. They warn that climate-related damage could amount to 54 per cent of the country’s projected future income, roughly double the European average, potentially cancelling out much of its expected income growth.

Lower-income households face heavier losses

According to the research, income reductions linked to heatwaves and droughts in Cyprus already surpass the European average. During the last two decades, these events have cut incomes across the population by an estimated 5 per cent, rising to 9 per cent for the poorest households.

Across Europe, the study found that poorer households have suffered income losses 2.7 percentage points greater than those experienced by wealthier households. It attributed part of that gap to lower-income families being more likely to inhabit locations exposed to extreme weather, while having fewer financial means to upgrade energy efficiency or safeguard their homes.

Combined hazards intensify the damage

Lead author Jessie Schleypen, a PhD candidate at Humboldt University of Berlin, explained that heat and drought cause greater harm when they occur together than when they happen separately.

Schleypen said the poorest families were especially exposed because obtaining essential services and finding the money needed to recover after extreme weather were more difficult for them.