Widespread storms and severe hail forecast across Cyprus on Saturday

Nicosia, Cyprus. Cyprus is expected to experience widespread rain and thunderstorms on Saturday, August 29, as an approaching disturbance brings an unusually unstable weather pattern, according to Kitasweather. The forecaster said severe hail, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

Rare August disturbance

Kitasweather said summer rainfall in Cyprus, particularly during July and August, is usually caused by thermal instability and mainly affects inland and mountainous areas during the early afternoon.

Rainfall caused by dynamic weather systems affecting wider parts of the island is rare. The most recent case occurred on August 6, 2017, when a weak cut-off low in the mid-troposphere brought localised storms mainly to the western third of Cyprus. Akamas recorded the heaviest rainfall, at 28.3mm, while the wider Pissouri area experienced the most intense and sustained storm, although no weather station was operating there at the time.

The forecaster said the most notable comparable event occurred on August 30, 1971, when a deeper cut-off low and a surface low affected the island. Saturday’s system was described as comparable to, and potentially stronger than, the 1971 event, with the polar jet stream dipping from northern latitudes towards the eastern Mediterranean.

While smaller disturbances are not unusual in August, Kitasweather said a system of this scale is highly atypical. It remains unclear whether Saturday’s weather will match the 1971 event or become a record August event for rainfall totals, coverage and intensity since records began in 1902.

Friday conditions

A cut-off low centred over the Black Sea is moving southwards and is expected to begin affecting Cyprus on Friday.

Most areas are expected to remain generally sunny, although increased cloud over mountainous, semi-mountainous and some inland areas may bring isolated afternoon rain and thunderstorms. Storms that develop are likely to be intense and may be accompanied by hail.

Temperatures are expected to remain 2-4C above seasonal levels, reaching 37-40C inland, 32-35C on the coast and around 26C at Chionistra.

Saturday forecast

Storm activity is expected to begin between approximately 5am and 8am in northern areas before spreading across the northern third of the island, the mountains, semi-mountainous areas and the interior.

By late morning and around midday, thunderstorms are expected to become widespread as they extend westwards, southwards and eastwards. New storms may continue to develop in several areas during the afternoon.

The disturbance is expected to weaken significantly from around 5pm and subside by sunset. Cloud is forecast to persist into the evening over southern and eastern areas, where isolated rain and a possible coastal thunderstorm may occur before conditions clear.

Kitasweather said conditions will mainly support multicell thunderstorms, although isolated supercells cannot be ruled out. These would be more likely in the northern third of the island earlier in the day and in southern and eastern areas later on.

The forecaster estimates that 70-90 per cent of Cyprus will receive some rainfall, with a small possibility that a larger area could be affected. Where the strongest storms pass over weather stations, isolated totals of around 100mm or more are possible.

The most intense storms may bring severe hail with ground accumulation. Hailstones could reach or exceed 3-4cm in diameter.

Winds and temperatures

Winds are expected to be generally light to near moderate, at force 3-4 on the Beaufort scale. However, strong to gale-force gusts of 75-100km/h are possible in and near the strongest storms, with isolated higher gusts not ruled out.

Kitasweather said a tornado cannot be excluded, particularly if a supercell develops. Waterspouts are considered more likely, mainly over the sea around the island.

Temperatures are expected to fall significantly on Saturday, reaching 29-33C inland, 29-32C on the coast and around 18C at Chionistra, or 3-6C below seasonal norms.

Outlook for Sunday and Monday

The disturbance is expected to retreat eastwards on Sunday, bringing generally improved weather. However, a relatively unstable air mass is expected to remain over Cyprus.

Cloud is forecast to develop around midday and during the afternoon, mainly over the southern half of the Troodos range and areas further south and south-east, with a possibility of isolated afternoon rain. Temperatures are expected to rise slightly to around 32-35C inland and on the coast, and around 21C at Chionistra.

By Monday, the disturbance is expected to move further away, although unstable conditions are expected to persist. Afternoon cloud may again develop over the southern Troodos range and areas further south, with a chance of isolated rain or thunderstorms.

Temperatures are forecast to return to around seasonal levels, reaching 33-36C inland, 31-34C on the coast and around 22C at Chionistra.