Athens, Greece. Citigroup raised its target price for Eurobank to €5.00 from €4.70 and maintained a buy recommendation after stronger first-quarter results and an upgraded profitability outlook.
Valuation assumptions and scenarios
Citigroup said that based on a reference share price of €3.72 recorded on May 15, 2026, its base case implies an upside potential of 34.4 per cent, rising to 38.5 per cent when including an expected dividend yield of 4.1 per cent.
According to analysis shared by Greek business outlet Newmoney, Citi assigned a bull case valuation of €6.10, representing a potential upside of 64 per cent, while its downside scenario places the share price at €3.55, 4.6 per cent below the reference level.
The optimistic scenario assumes a return on tangible equity one percentage point higher and a cost of equity reduced by 100 basis points, while the negative case reflects a 1.5 percentage point lower return and a 200 basis point higher cost of equity.
Forecast revisions and outlook
The report said Eurobank is entering 2026 with stronger momentum in net interest income and fee generation, supported by management’s medium-term targets, leading Citi to revise its forecasts upward.
Citi increased its estimates for normalised earnings per share by 4 per cent for 2026, 9 per cent for 2027, and 14 per cent for 2028, primarily driven by higher expectations for net interest income and commissions.
First-quarter performance
Citi said Eurobank’s first-quarter normalised net profits reached €351 million, broadly in line with market expectations of €352 million.
Reported profits were €331 million, affected by a €35 million cost linked to a voluntary exit programme involving 200 employees, which Citi said is expected to deliver annual savings of €14 million.
Citi highlighted a 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase in net interest income, which exceeded consensus estimates by 2 per cent and reinforced expectations that the bank could surpass its €2.6 billion net interest income target for 2026.
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