Tallinn, Estonia. Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief said Russian President Vladimir Putin has few good options in Ukraine as Russia’s forces struggle to advance and Western sanctions erode resources. Kaupo Rosin told Reuters Russia is losing more men than it is recruiting and that a general mobilisation would be deeply unpopular.
Recruitment pressures and mobilisation risks
Rosin said Russia was losing more men than it was recruiting in the fifth year of its full-scale war. He said a general mobilisation would be deeply unpopular and could undermine stability.
“All these factors together are creating a situation where some people in Russia including in the higher levels understand that they have a big problem. Hard to say what Putin thinks about it, but I think all these factors are starting to float into his decision-making,” Rosin said in an interview in Tallinn.
Battlefield pace and economic indicators
Russian forces in recent months have been registering some of their slowest rates of advance in Ukraine since 2023, one year after their full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s $3 trillion economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter.
Putin has said government measures to boost the economy are beginning to yield positive results, and he has repeatedly said Russian forces will fight on until they have achieved all their goals.
Sanctions impact and calls for more pressure
Rosin said the main reason the financial situation in Russia was “so bad” was sanctions on the financial sector that were “really, really hurting”, while punitive measures on Russia’s oil exports were also limiting its income.
“I think it’s very difficult choices for them now. It’s hard to predict what they will decide in this current situation,” he said.
Estonia, which shares a land border with Russia, is a leading supporter of Ukraine in NATO and the European Union, and it has called on allies to step up pressure on Moscow.
“So my message is let’s push forward with (sanctions). This is not the time to hesitate, just let’s keep going,” Rosin said.
What impact do you think further sanctions could have on Russia’s capacity to continue the war in Ukraine?
