Nicosia, Cyprus. Record participation in Cyprus’ May parliamentary elections is intensifying competition and creating openings for smaller parties and political movements. Polls indicate at least seven parties are expected to secure seats, with a parliamentary entry threshold of 3.6 per cent.
Expected parliamentary representation
Surveys indicate Disy and Akel are expected to remain the dominant parties, with Elam projected to secure third place. Diko is expected to rank fourth, followed by newcomers Direct Democracy, Alma and Volt.
Under these projections, Edek and the Ecologists’ Movement would not enter parliament.
Restrictions on publishing poll details
The Cyprus Mail said it cannot publish specific poll results or projected party percentages because the legal deadline elapsed at midnight on Saturday. It reported that, on penalty of steep fines, only generic and oblique references to polls are permitted, citing a senior official.
The government’s stated reasoning for the restrictions is that publishing poll numbers might influence the election result, including by strengthening perceptions of a “lost vote” and discouraging support for smaller parties expected to fall short of parliamentary entry.
Record number of candidates and parties
These elections will feature a record 753 candidates and 19 political parties or formations, representing 102 more candidates and four more parties than in the 2021 election.
Impact of new movements and poll volatility
New entrants, including Fidias Panayiotou’s Direct Democracy and former auditor-general Odysseas Michaelides’ Alma, have drawn attention and both present themselves as “anti-systemic” parties.
Political analyst Christoforos Christoforou pointed to significant fluctuations in various polls regarding Direct Democracy and Alma. The reported fluctuation for Direct Democracy is about seven per cent, and for Alma four per cent, while smaller but significant ranges are reported for Elam and Diko.
What do you expect the record number of candidates and parties to change about the outcome of the May elections?
