Brazil votes in close Lula-Bolsonaro runoff amid economic concerns and US tensions

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Brazilians cast ballots on Sunday in a closely contested presidential runoff between leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. The election could move Latin America’s biggest country decisively to the right and strengthen its alignment with the United States amid a regional conservative shift.

A contest with regional implications

Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro. He surprised pollsters earlier this month by finishing first in the initial voting round.

His election would add to a succession of victories by Latin American right-wing candidates aligned with US President Donald Trump. A fourth presidential mandate for Lula, by contrast, would disappoint Washington, which has been at odds with his administration on security and trade.

On Saturday, Reuters reported that a campaign inside Trump’s State Department had sought to help return the Bolsonaros to power.

US influence and the former president’s conviction

Corruption scandals, worries about the economy and allegations of American interference have been central to the campaign. Washington denies meddling in the election.

The contest has also been shaped by the consequences of Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction in 2025 over a plot to stage a coup in 2022. Flavio Bolsonaro has promised to secure his father’s release if he wins.

Trump described the prosecution as a “witch hunt” and introduced a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, explicitly tying that decision to Jair Bolsonaro’s trial. The measure was subsequently softened, but Trump imposed additional levies on Brazil this year, citing trade practices he deemed unfair.

Lula has portrayed the Trump administration’s close relationship with the Bolsonaro family as an effort to influence the vote. He has also characterised the tariffs and other punitive actions as bullying.

Household finances and crime

Although unemployment and inequality have declined, Lula has had difficulty persuading voters burdened by expensive everyday necessities and substantial household debt. Persistent gang violence is another concern for the electorate.

Bolsonaro has tried to turn dissatisfaction over living costs to his advantage while advocating tough measures against crime. His pledges include maximum-security prisons and chemical castration for serious sexual offences.

Sunday’s voting

After voting in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, Flavio Bolsonaro encouraged voters to turn out “come rain or shine”.

Lula was expected to cast his ballot in São Bernardo do Campo, near Sao Paulo.