Iceland referendum seen as potential boost for EU enlargement support

Reykjavik, Iceland. European Union officials hope Iceland’s August 29 referendum on restarting membership negotiations will strengthen support for enlargement among EU citizens and member states, diplomats told Reuters.

The vote will determine whether Iceland reopens talks with the bloc, rather than whether it joins the EU. Any membership agreement would require a second referendum.

Vote on reopening negotiations

Iceland, a NATO member, already has access to the EU single market through the European Economic Area.

Supporters of renewed negotiations say EU membership could help Iceland address high living costs, strengthen its position with larger trade partners and respond to changing Arctic geopolitics, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s designs on Greenland.

A yes vote is not assured. A Gallup poll this month found 46% of voters supported restarting talks and 46% opposed doing so, while 8% were undecided. Polls show a majority of Icelanders oppose joining the EU.

Enlargement considerations

The referendum comes as the EU considers enlargement, with Montenegro seeking to join in 2028 and Albania, Ukraine and Moldova pursuing progress in their membership bids.

EU diplomats said restarting talks with Iceland, a wealthy country with a population of about 400,000 that they consider easier to integrate, could improve perceptions of enlargement among citizens wary of admitting new members.

A senior EU diplomat said a positive Icelandic vote would demonstrate the EU’s attractiveness and boost morale within the bloc, while making it easier for sceptical countries to accept Montenegro’s accession. Montenegro also has a small population but a much lower GDP per capita.

Potential link with Montenegro

A second EU diplomat said Iceland joining the bloc could have a positive effect on enlargement as a political tool, citing hesitation over the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine.

The diplomat described Iceland as having a modern, dynamic and small economy, and said officials saw positive aspects in its potential accession.

Steven Blockmans, deputy director of the Tallinn-based International Centre for Defence and Security, said linking Iceland’s accession process with Montenegro’s could be more successful than advancing Montenegro’s bid alone, given concerns among voters in some EU member states about enlargement’s possible economic effects.