Met Office forecasts strongest El Niño in living memory
Britain’s Met Office said the developing El Niño could be the largest since the 19th century and may contribute to record global temperatures in 2027.
London, United Kingdom. Britain’s Met Office said on Friday that the developing El Niño weather pattern was likely to be the strongest in living memory and possibly the largest event of its kind since the 19th century.
The forecaster said its latest projections indicated that 2027 was very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
Pacific warming forecast
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years, usually lasts between nine and 12 months, and can affect weather patterns worldwide, threatening crops.
The Met Office said its latest forecasts showed equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures rising by more than 3 degrees Celsius later this year.
A typical El Niño causes warming of between 1C and 2C, while a rise of 2C is considered a major event.
Forecast assessment
The Met Office said 2026 was expected to be known for the development of the largest El Niño in living memory.
“This implies that if the forecast is accurate — and other forecast systems show similar extreme values — then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences,” said Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting.
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