Netanyahu Bloc Forecast to Lead Israel’s Wartime Election as Region Reacts With Pessimism

Jerusalem, Israel. Israelis turned out in record numbers on Tuesday for a wartime election described as a major turning point in the country’s history, and early projections point to a lead for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc. Elsewhere in the Middle East, the contest between the veteran nationalist premier and a former hawkish military chief mostly deepened pessimism.

Projected results

Nearly 86% of votes had been counted by Wednesday. Israeli media forecast that Netanyahu’s alliance of right-wing, hardline and ultra-Orthodox parties would take 53 parliamentary seats, ahead of the 48 projected for the opposition bloc led by his rival Gadi Eisenkot.

Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history, secured the backing of a clearly larger share of Israeli Jews than had been expected. This apparently ensures he will remain in office at least as a caretaker.

Context of the vote

It was the first national election since Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage. The war that followed in Gaza flattened most of the territory and killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to health authorities there.

The conflict has left Israel increasingly isolated internationally. Global public opinion has shifted decisively against it, including in the United States, its closest ally.

Netanyahu’s campaign

Netanyahu faced heavy criticism over the security failures that preceded the attack on what became Israel’s deadliest day. Presenting himself as the only leader able to protect the country, he argued that his killings of the leaders of Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and their ally Iran had made Israel and the world safer. The prime minister has long been regarded as a consummate political survivor.

Reactions in the region

In Egypt, the first Arab country to make peace with Israel, in 1979, 62-year-old lawyer Outhman Selim said he had hoped a Netanyahu defeat would turn Israel away from the far right. Those hopes, he said, had been dashed.

In Gaza, displaced Palestinian Majed Jundia drew no distinction between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, who is a former military chief. “They want to eradicate the Palestinian people so they do what they want,” he said.