Poll puts CTP on course for Turkish Cypriot legislative election victory

Nicosia, Cyprus. The pro-federal solution CTP is on course for a landslide victory in the next Turkish Cypriot legislative election, according to a CMIRS poll published on Wednesday. The election date has not been confirmed but is most likely to be December 6.

Poll results

The poll surveyed 500 people on their voting intentions and placed the CTP on 47.3 per cent, more than twice the support recorded by the next-largest party.

The UBP, the senior partner in the current ruling coalition, ranked second with 21.7 per cent. The pro-federal solution TDP was third on 4.8 per cent, despite having lost all its seats in the Turkish Cypriot legislature at the 2022 election.

The YDP was fourth with 3.6 per cent, followed by the DP, the ruling coalition’s junior partner, on 1.3 per cent. The HP, led by former Turkish Cypriot chief negotiator Kudret Ozersay, received 1.1 per cent.

Projected seats

If the poll result were replicated on election day, the CTP would likely win 32 of the legislature’s 50 seats and could form the next Turkish Cypriot administration without coalition partners.

The UBP would win 15 seats and the TDP three, while the YDP, DP and HP would not win seats.

CTP leader Sila Usar Incirli would become the second female Turkish Cypriot ‘prime minister’ and the first Turkish Cypriot female party leader to win an election. The projected majority would be larger than at any Turkish Cypriot legislative election apart from 1990, when Dervish Eroglu’s UBP won 34 seats.

Current legislature

The UBP currently holds 23 seats and the CTP has 18. The YDP and DP have two seats each, while four members sit as independents.

One seat remains vacant after Tufan Erhurman left the legislature to become Turkish Cypriot leader last October.