US midterm elections test Trump’s second term as Democrats are favored to win the House

Washington, United States. Americans vote on Tuesday in midterm elections that will serve as a verdict on the opening two years of Donald Trump’s second presidential term. Polls and nonpartisan analysts favor Democrats to take the House from Republicans, while the Senate outcome is unclear.

What is at stake

Every one of the 435 House seats is on the ballot, as are 35 of the 100 Senate seats, although most contests are not considered competitive. To gain a majority, Democrats need to take at least three seats in the House and four in the Senate.

Related: US Midterms: Democrats Favoured to Take House as Senate Control Remains Uncertain

RelatedUS Midterms: Democrats Favoured to Take House as Senate Control Remains Uncertain

The fight for the Senate is playing out in nearly 10 closely contested statewide races, most of them in Republican strongholds.

A Democratic-led House or Senate could open investigations into what Democrats describe as self-dealing by the Trump administration. It could also demand concessions before approving legislation.

History and approval ratings

Historical trends work against Trump’s Republicans. Since World War Two, the party of the sitting president has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections.

Trump’s approval rating is near its lowest ever levels. Voter frustration over the war with Iran and the resulting rise in fuel prices has weighed on it.

A campaign centered on Trump

There is little doubt that this year’s vote is largely a referendum on Trump, who has been the central figure in US politics for most of the past decade. He has repeatedly urged supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot,” a message Democratic leaders have gladly repeated.

Since the start of October, the president has held more than two dozen campaign rallies to energize his base. The vast majority were in states he won easily in 2024, which shows how much Republicans are on the defensive.

Trump and other Republicans have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical, un-American and even communist. Speaking in Washington on Monday, Trump said: “The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history.”

Affordability concerns

Opinion polls indicate that voters are most worried about affordability and disapprove of how Trump has handled it. His sweeping tariff policy and his decision to attack Iran in February have raised costs at home.

Republican candidates, for their part, have found it hard to put distance between themselves and a president who demands loyalty and rarely admits to mistakes.